Study at Reykjavik University



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Our international students describe their RU experiences.

Reykjavik University, 2017

Reykjavik University is very closely
connected to the industry of Iceland. This gives our students a unique opportunity in
a very close-knit, advanced, developed industrial society to have access to industry, specialists and
opportunities that very few universities can offer. I really like the place. Everybody is very nice
and is always willing to help you. I selected Iceland mainly because
of Iceland itself, because of the nature. But on the other hand the
school is also very good. It’s a very high
energy environment. We have geothermal and
we also have a lot of water because it rains a lot,
hence hydropower. And there is
also a lot of wind. It’s an opportunity for me to learn a number of
innovative renewable energy technologies and be able to utilize
them when I go back home. In corporate finance we are few people,
small classes and a lot of discussions. A lot of interaction between students and teachers.
So it has a personal feel to it. Here in the computer science department
there is a very advanced course Here in the computer science department
there is a very advanced course for game design and virtual environments.
So that’s the main reason that brought us here. Classes are a lot smaller here and
you have a lot more regular assignments like group work
and presentations. I feel that there is a much more direct
relationship between teacher and student. With much more dialog which
can really help improve your studying. We really sit down with our students
and we tailor the program to each student. Our primary purpose is to educate the
specialists and the leaders of the future. I’m working in the subfield of mathematics
called combinatorics and I work with quite simple
mathematical objects. We’re teaching the computer how to prove
things about these mathematical objects. This is very new. You have study spaces
you have lecture halls and you also have a very nice
library where I study a lot. I think it’s really advanced, a lot of
access to innovative and modern stuff that really makes learning
and studying easier. It’s been really nice. We have met
a lot of different people and we are always doing
something. We have full schedules. We live in the capital and
there is always something to do a lot of cultural events, dancing and places
to meet people and just hang out. At one point it was
a hard decision for me. But when I came here then I knew it was the
right decision. So I’m very happy here. Something that I really liked
was that it was Iceland. So it was perfect, I could study and come
to an amazing place at the same time.

How the blockchain will radically transform the economy | Bettina Warburg



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Say hello to the decentralized economy — the blockchain is about to change everything. In this lucid explainer of the complex (and confusing) technology, Bettina …

[CIS 2010 John Bonython lecture] Niall Ferguson – Empires on the Edge of Chaos



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Officiated by Centre of Independent Studies

Professor Ferguson speaks at 9:10

1. Professor Ferguson has been voicing support for then-humble Republican congressman Paul Ryan back in 2010 already as you can hear from 36:43
2. His views on American public finance and how the Obama administration handles it have only been becoming more true since he gave this lecture.
3. His article for Newsweek on August 2012 was hardly misleading, I found those criticism very distasteful. Some people first accused him using wrong facts when what they offered was just another set of opinion, (not to mention when those critics used obsolete facts from an old CBO report) and afterwards start labeling people.

this is big ideas from the ABC your excellency professor Marie Bashir ayaan Hirsi Ali Neil Ferguson members supporters and friends of the CIS ladies and gentlemen who will become members supporters and Friends of the CIS it is my great pleasure also to welcome you but as well to introduce you to our 2010 John Munoz and lecturer who follows in such a long line as distinguished speakers I'd also like to add my thanks to the McCrory group for the support of tonight's event and those in the past in Edinburgh in August 16 96 a particularly cold man a group of four young men shuffled down one of its streets past the church shielding themselves from the sort of cold we don't get here too often although maybe tonight it's the knife maybe they've been to the pub or even to the church but battling the cold was on their mind one of the groups Thomas Aiken head a young man of 19 joke that was probably warmer in the place Ezra called Hill right now who knows about Ezra these days I certainly don't but it seems that Aiken had more broadly had question aspects of the truth of the Bible if they knew it then and that really was a heresy the Scottish Kirk had at this point reads the start of its enlightenment and the whistle blew the whistle that blew for that start was probably the execution of Thomas Aiken head for blasphemy now this is probably seems an odd way to introduce a modern-day historian at the eminence of Neil Ferguson I'll try to explain 1696 isn't one of those years of sticks in our minds maybe 1688 of the great of the glorious revolution of 1776 the year of the publication of the wealth of nations or when the u.s. declare us declared independence but something started around then that is with us today and in which were all legatees it was a Scottish enlightenment it's and I said O'Neill that I have a preoccupation with this it's also worth noting that much of the push for the rationality and science that early enlightenment period was promoted by senior religious figures who had no who had no time for the fundamentalists of their time they argued to spare way akin head that's – it's worth bearing in 2010 bearing in mind in 2010 the end of the 17th century and for the couple of hundred years have followed set the standard the institution's the tone and the confidence for the modern world in practical and philosophical terms it has made us prosperous and it has made us free the moral dimension of all of this is overwhelming Neil Ferguson is the foremost chronicler of that the quest he of course being from Glasgow is he is the inheritor of the ideas these fellows Scots of that earlier period Adam Smith David Hume Adam Ferguson Francis Hutcheson and so and so many of the others have followed I'm not necessarily hung up on the Scots but being a Lindsey that mate in that in itself makes me wave a flag occasionally our daughter Heather made her first visit to Scotland a few weeks ago and a post on her Facebook site while in Edinburgh said she was in bagpipe heaven I'm still not sure if that was because of bagpipes more generally of course she discovered the music of the Red Hot Chili Peppers true you can fight you google them on YouTube so so in what was a period of accelerating British decline in the middle 1960s another Ferguson appeared this time in Glasgow the son of a physician and a physicist Neil Campbell Douglas Ferguson didn't follow the hard disciplines hard of his parents or a Dedes sister a professor of physics these days and instead took an even harder road into the world of the past to explain the future and we're all glad that he did schooled in Glasgow he also spent an early couple of preschool years in Kenya a remarkable coincidence given that ayaan Hirsi Ali spent much personal life in Nairobi upon matriculation he entered modeling college at Oxford and on graduation began his teaching career variously at Oxford and Cambridge in 2002 he became the John Hertzog professor in financial history at New York University two years later he became the Lawrence a Tisch professor of history at Harvard and also the William Ziegler professor of Business Administration at the Harvard Business School he is also a senior research fellow at Jesus College Oxford and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University fortunately for most of us who don't go to Oxford or to Harvard Neil Ferguson is also a teacher for the world his books and the often related TV programs become available to all his explanations of war peace politics prosperity or lack of it entrepreneurship success and failure in business banking and money is compelling but there's more the liberal tradition the liberty of the individual and all that flows from it seems at least to me to be a lens through which he sees and interprets and interprets events the empirical foundations are underpinning all this brings an authority that's unmatched he also of course has a craft of writing beautifully many of the books we know with the ascent of money and Empire topping the recognition list TV has no doubt sharpen the focus on these two but this is long he's a few paper and iron this one paper and iron Hamburg business and German politics in the era of inflation 1897 to 1927 doesn't quite have the ring to it if I have the later books but it was his first I'm afraid it's not my library Neil but then the list starts to sharpen maybe because of these wonderful titles the pity of war explaining World War one the world's banker the history of the health of House of Rothschild the cash Nexus money and power in the modern world Empire the rise and demise of the British World Order and the lessons for global power and it's in its sequel Colossus then rise and fall of the American Empire in the world a world of the war of the world a history of the 20th century conflict and then of course the ascent of money and his latest just out – ansara the lives and times of Sigma and Warburg which apparently is available out there tonight as a special pre-release because it's not out in Australia just yet so for those in which to get it it's there and there's a book on Henry Kissinger on its way he's a prolific contributor to the print and electronic media and the and the academic literature a true public intellectual a tournament has sadly been devalued in this country in recent years maybe Neil's example will go a long way to help restore its true meaning and currency I've wandered around a bit of intellectual history from three three hundred years ago and it's time for me to draw this together to allow an eel to take the stage yesterday at Macquarie University Neil received an honorary Doctorate his first as it turns out in his address he discussed many things about the future of this country he is unquestionably optimistic about our prospects he then spoke about Lachlan Macquarie and the colonial administration he headed and went surprise you to know that infrastructure was one of these one of McQuarrie's preoccupations and doesn't resonate today this as you may know is a 200th anniversary of his arrival as governor of New South Wales and I'm so delighted the mockeries current day successor is with us tonight so now a quick diversion back to a content before I can head before I end I said that Neil was the inheritor of those great ideas of the Enlightenment especially the Scottish one we all are one of the dangers we face is what we have learned that what we have learned has tarnished and may be put aside for political mystical or some other reason political correctness perhaps that's why we need the Neil Ferguson's we need them to explain the world and what's important we are also privileged to know that Edie's side is today's Thomas Aiken head ayaan Hirsi Ali virtually fortunately for all of us though she has not met his fate and she feels he powers on in the fence of freedom and the traditions of the Enlightenment that's about as former formidable a team for good as you will get today ladies and gentlemen please welcome Neil fergan as he delivers a 2010 Jonathan lecture thank you very much Greg your excellency ladies and gentlemen it's a huge pleasure for me to be here in Sydney with you tonight my thanks go to all at the Center for independent studies who have worked so hard to make our trip here so enjoyable so fulfilling particular at to its chairman Michael darling and of course but to Greg who was the cupid who brought me and I am together in New York early last year you know you've all done so much to make me feel at home since I arrived in Australia last Friday I attended a conference at Coulomb at which every thirds delegate had a Scottish name I was then awarded an honorary degree by University named after a Scotsman the following day I was given a dinner by a bank named after the same Scotsman and now ladies and gentlemen you have capped it all by laying on authentically Scottish weather for me thanks for nothing this year on the 200th anniversary of Lachlan Macquarie his appointment as governor of New South Wales I think it's appropriate that the van – lecture should have an Imperial theme now you may have noticed during dinner some rather striking pictures on these screens and if you were to enthralled in conversation there's one on that little card on the table right in front of you that picture is part of a cycle of extraordinary paintings five in all produced just around 10 years after Lachlan Macquarie is death in the United States by an artist named Thomas Cole and these paintings fascinate me because they depict the life cycle of an empire fact but the five paintings are entitled collectively the course of empire you can see them incidentally the next time you visit New York if you go to the New York Historical Society where they're housed the one you've got on your table is actually the fourth in the cycle the first is entitled the savage state and just to pick two natural wilderness it's always the same geographical location in each case the second depicts farmers Arcadia and is entitled the pastoral state the third and much the largest canvas depicts a kind of classical Emporium a marble scene of splendor and prosperity and is entitled the consummation of Empire what you're looking at is the destruction of Empire and the final scene in the five is entitled simply desolation the message is clear all empires no matter how magnificent they may be are condemned to decline and to fall now that's I think essentially how we've all been raised to think of the historical process as an essentially cyclical one it's an approach which has a very long tradition in Western civilization stretching back in fact more than 2,000 years in the histories written by Polybius the process that he calls Ana psychosis proceeds in the following order this is a political cycle the first stage is monarchy the second is kingship then comes tyranny then aristocracy then oligarchy then democracy and finally something polybius called o´clock recei which is the rule of the mob something we have of course in Australia day just joking in Giambattista Vico is extraordinary insane rover there's a Rico sir or recurrence process of three historical phases in the cycle you go from the divine to the heroic which is the feudal monarchy and you end in the human or democratic it's another cyclical theory of history though for much much later in the early 20th century our old Spengler's decline of the West offered a biological model where civilizations were organisms that had thousand year life cycles and went through seasons always ending in a miserable winter Arnold Toynbee nobody reads Arnold Toynbee anymore but once he was the best-selling historian it's a warning to us all wrote a 12 volumes a study of history which posited another cycle challenge followed by the response of creative minorities and then came inexorably decline what time we thought of a civilizational suicide when leaders stopped responding creatively to the challenges that they faced and you know cyclical theories like those remain popular to this day I doubt if many people in this room have read any of the authors I've mentioned so far but quite a few of you have probably read my good friend Paul Kennedy's great bestseller the rise and fall of great Paris published back in 1987 that's another cyclical theory a theory of Imperial overstretch as great powers overextend themselves through conquest and imperial overstretch and that process causes their economies at home to suffer to decline and to bring the Empire down with it most recently Jared Diamond's book collapse how societies choose to fail or succeed offers a final sick theory of history environmental cycles all the way from 17th century Easter Island to 21st century China a society's rise and exploit their natural resources overdo it and then succumb to natural disasters of one sort or another with all these different cyclical theories in our minds in our subconscious even if we haven't read those books I'm always struck by how that idea is kind of there in the popular psyche we naturally tend to assume then in our time history will also move cyclically and slowly think of the environmental or the demographic threats that we all laugh to chatter about they do seem very very remote don't they maybe that's why we don't mind talking about them but in an election year who really cares or talks about the average atmospheric temperature in the year 2050 or for that matter the age structure of the population the cycle will take care of this while we focus on burning issues like traffic congestion in Sydney and yet it's possible ladies and gentlemen that this entire cyclical framework that I'm describing to you is in fact flawed maybe just maybe Cole's artistic representation of Imperial birth growth and eventual death is a misrepresentation of the historical process itself what if history isn't cyclical and slow-moving what if it's a rhythmic times it's almost stationary but it's also capable of accelerating very suddenly like a sports car what ladies and gentlemen if collapse doesn't arrive over a number of centuries become suddenly like a thief in the night I want to suggest you tonight that great pass umpires are in the strict sense of the word complex systems are made up of very large numbers of interacting components that are quite asymmetrically organized in other words their construction more resembles a termite hill than an Egyptian pyramid they operate somewhere between order and disorder on the edge of chaos in the wonderful phrase of the computer scientist Christopher Langton now complex systems as they're properly understood can appear to be operating stable they can seem to be in equilibrium for quite some time but in reality they're constantly adapting evolving mutating but it comes a moment when all complex systems go critical a very very small trigger can set off what the scientists call a phase transition from a benign equilibrium to a crisis you all know the examples the single grain of sand that causes the whole sand pile to collapse or the legendary butterfly in the Amazonian rainforest which flaps its wings and causes a hurricane in the home counties of England to understand what I'm talking about if you haven't read any complexity theory just think of the things that scientists use the complexity theory to describe water molecules as they form themselves unpredictably and yet symmetrically into snowflakes anthills I already mentioned termite nests complex things but not the products of a plan the products of the almost arbitrary interaction of lots of tiny little insects the canopy of a rain forest all of these are authentically complex systems their complex systems have certain things in common one of them is that he quite small inputs to a complex system can have really huge and unanticipated changes this is what scientists call the amplifier effect when things go wrong in a complex system the scale of disruption is in fact impossible to anticipate because there's no such thing as the typical or average forest fire to use the jargon of modern physics and here I do owe a debt to my scientific family I'm the black sheep but I always try to keep on a forest before a fire is in a state of self-organizing criticality its teetering on the verge of a breakdown but what you don't know is what size the breakdown will be will it be a huge and devastating conflagration or just a small controllable fire it's really hard to say a forest fire twice as large as last year's is in fact roughly four or six or eight times less likely to happen this year that kind of pattern which is known as a power law distribution kibriya different from the normal distribution of the bell curve is remarkably common in the natural world it applies not just to forest fires it applies also to earthquakes and it applies to epidemics you may possibly have been thinking as I was talking that it also seems to apply in the realm of finance who never quite know how big the next crisis will be and it turns out that financial crises don't follow the normal distribution they follow a power law – well what I want to suggest you tonight is really quite interesting I want to suggest you that regardless of whether a great political entity is democratic or authoritarian any large-scale political unit like an empire or a great power is a complex system in just that sense and I could say exactly the same of financial systems but tonight let's focus first on empires in other words most big empires have a nominal central authority somebody is the hereditary Emperor or King but in practice the power of the individual rulers a function of that network of economic social and political relations over which the emperor presides very little control was exercised over Lachlan Macquarie by the men back in London in fact the British Empire was a perfect example of a self-organizing complex system in which confident adaptation occurred on the periphery of the individuals made their own decisions it was a very very large human version of the anthill now because that analogy works well it's not surprising to find that empires share many of the characteristics of the other complex adaptive systems I've been describing including the tendency to move from apparent equilibrium from apparent stability to instability quite suddenly that is the key fact that challenges the whole cyclical theory of history which we for some reason rather have grown so very fond of let me just give you a couple of examples the Bourbon monarchy in France in the 18th century passed with amazing speed from triumph to terror French intervention on the other side of the Atlantic on the side of the colonial rebels against British rule of whom we all of course deeply disapprove seemed like a great idea to the French it was a perfect opportunity to take revenge on Great Britain for its victory in the Seven Years War but that decision to intervene in the American War of Independence tipped the French monarchy over the edge into chaos in May 1789 with the summoning of the states-general francis long-dormant representative assembly a chain-reaction was unleashed that led with amazing speed to the complete collapse of raw legitimacy in France just four years later in January 1793 lu xvi was decapitated by that extraordinary machine the guillotine or take another case more familiar in this room take the case of the collapse of the British Empire we tend to think of that as a rather protracted process and much history is written as if the British Empire began declining in the late 19th century this is quite wrong the zenith of the power of the British Empire and territorial terms was in fact in the 1930s and to Winston Churchill in 1945 sitting as an equal at Yalta with the other members of the big three with Roosevelt and Stalin it didn't seem as if the Sun was going to set on the British Empire on his watch and yet ladies and gentlemen within just a dozen years of Yalta the United Kingdom had given up what became Bangladesh Burma I still call it Burma Egypt Eritrea Ghana India Israel Jordan Malaya Newfoundland Pakistan Sri Lanka and Sudan all gone the Suez Crisis in 1956 revealed the reality that the United Kingdom could no longer act in defiance of the United States in the Middle East or pretty much anywhere else for that matter the Empire was in effect at an end now if empires are as I'm trying to persuade you complex systems that sooner or later succumb to sudden and catastrophic malfunctions rather than you know cycling sedately from Arcadia to Apogee to Armageddon what are the implications for the United States today what are the implications of complexity theory for today's Anglophone Empire I think the most obvious points I'm going to make tonight the one I want you to remember so if your attention is wondering which usually happens in most lectures at this time do pay attention is this Imperial falls forget all this decline there isn't a decline that's just a fall off a cliff a nearly all was associated with fiscal crises with dramatic imbalances between revenues and expenditures and above all he is the key idea anyone nodding off above all these crises these dramatic Falls are associated with the mounting cost of servicing a huge public debt I'm going to give you four examples to illustrate my point let's start with Spain in the 17th century actually even earlier in the sixteenth already as early as 1543 nearly two-thirds of the ordinary revenue of the Habsburg monarchy in Spain was going on interest payments on the herose which were the loans that the Habsburg monarchy used to finance itself by 1559 total interest payments on these things actually exceeded ordinary revenue but this stage the Spanish monarchy was essentially running on extraordinary financial expedience and the returns of its silver mines in Spain fifteen eighty four eighty four percent of ordinary revenue going on interest payments 1598 back to a hundred percent when all of your ordinary tax revenues are going on interest payments it is ladies and gentlemen game over think of France in the 18th century I told you that story about the French Revolution but what you have to understand is why they called the estates-general they called it because of the fiscal crisis here's the data here are the data between 1750 1 and 1788 in other words the eve of the revolution interest and amortization payments debt service rose from a quarter of tax revenue to 62% or take Ottoman Turkey one of the great empires of the early modern period by the 19th century here's the story dirt service rose from 17% of revenue in 1868 to 32% in 1871 to 50% in 1877 which was the time of the great ottoman default after which the Ottoman Empire in Europe in the Balkans essentially began to fall apart and finally let's revisit the case of post-war Britain already by the mid 1920s debt charges interest and amortization were absorbing 44% of total government expenditure they already exceeded defense expenditure by considerable margin it wasn't actually until 1937 that the British government was spending more on defense than on interest payments a very late stage indeed to embark on rearmament given the German and Japanese threat note also a really important kicker when Britain's problems really got nasty after 1945 when the treacherous Americans cut off land lease and demanded the debts be honored a very substantial proportion of Britain's debt was held in foreign hands of the 21 billion dollars of national debt at the end of the war 3.4 billion were owned odd rather to foreign investors to foreign creditors and that was around a third of Britain's GDP in 1945 you'll see the significance of that in a moment so alarm bells ladies and gentlemen should be ringing very loudly indeed in Washington DC as the United States contemplates a deficit for 2010 of more than one point four seven trillion dollars that's around 10 percent of u.s. GDP and that's the second year running that the deficit has been that big since 2001 in the space of less than 10 years the federal debt in public hands that's excluding those parts of the debt held by federal government agencies in the United States has doubled as a share of GDP from 32 percent to projected 66 percent next year and it just keeps going up according to the Congressional Budget Office's latest projections and this is using if you're interested in this kind of thing as I am there alternative fiscal scenario which they regard as the more politically likely of the two scenarios they produce the US federal debt could rise above ninety percent of GDP by 2020 it could reach a hundred and forty six percent by 2030 two hundred and thirty three percent by 2040 three hundred and forty four percent by 2050 and ladies and gentlemen those figures do not include the vast unfunded liabilities of the Social Security and Medicare systems now I rather imagine that to an Australian audience in a country where the net debt is minuscule by the standards of the rest of the Anglosphere these figures sound completely fantastic but listen to me there's more even more terrifying is to consider what this ongoing deficit finance could mean for the burden of interest payments as a share of US federal revenues and this is where it gets really cool the CBO projects that net interest payments could rise from where they are now which is 9 percent of federal revenues to 20 percent in 2020 36 percent in 2030 fifty-eight percent of federal revenues by 2040 and 85 percent of all federal revenues by 2050 my good friend Larry Kotlikoff recently pointed out in the Financial Times that by any meaningful measure the fiscal position of the United States today is in fact worse than that of Greece but Greece is not a global power it hasn't been a major empire for a very long time indeed I think the real point and the points of my lecture tonight is that in historical perspective unless something very drastic is done very soon the u.s. is heading into Habsburg Spain territory it is heading into boob on France territory it is heading into Ottoman Turkey territory it is heading into post-war Britain territory the fiscal numbers I've given you tonight are bad there's no doubt about it but in the realm of political entities and power the role of perception is crucial it may be more important than the actual numbers because in imperial crises ladies and gentlemen it's not the material underpinnings of power that really matter its expectations of future power in the eyes of those with the power and even more so in the eyes of their enemies right now I get the impression that the world at least the Western world basically expects the United States to muddle through and eventually to confront its problems as Churchill famously said to do the right thing when all the alternatives have been exhausted and right now with the sovereign debt crisis in Europe dominating the headlines at least the headlines back home and growing fears of a deflationary double dip or a recession bond yields are at historic lows below 3% if you look at the ten-year US Treasury so there's a pretty strong incentive there for Congress men to do nothing and to put off fiscal reform to say thinking of that cyclical theory of history this is a problem for the next generation not for us you know recently I was invited to a dinner in Washington to discuss radical fiscal reform for the United States and I was quite excited because I thought it would be like this I wondered which huge hotel in Washington they'd books and which ballroom we would be eating in three congressmen turned up it's funny except it's not funny it's scary there seems really in fact only to be one congressman who has seriously thought about how we could deal with this problem and it's Paul Ryan and I commend him to you as well as the few young Republicans who are prepared to talk seriously about stabilizing the fiscal position of the United States before it does go critical the trouble is for all those complacent congressmen of both parties who think this isn't an imminent problem there's a zero-sum game at the heart of any budgetary process even if I'm wrong and my old rival Paul Krugman is right and that is possible I don't rule that out even if he's right an interest rates stay low and the bond market is in a coma and the vigilantes go off and take up some other activity recurrent deficits year after year never much less than 5% of GDP even on the administration's optimistic forecasts plus debt accumulation as a result mean inevitably that interest payments will consume a rising proportion of tax revenue the process I've described to you is independent of any bond market panic and as interest payments consume more and more tax revenue with every passing year guess what gets squeezed not Social Security not Medicare the Unruh formal entitlement programs the thing that gets squeezed is that discretionary item in the federal budget known as defense spending ladies and gentlemen it AC pre-programmed reality of US fiscal policy today that the resources available to the Department of Defense will be reduced significantly in the years to come and I'm not talking about the 2050s I'm talking about the next five years indeed by my reckoning at some point within the next decade the US will reach the crossover point at which it will be spending more on debt service on interest payments than it is able to spend on defense and remember half the federal debt in public hands is in the hands of foreign creditors and of that 1/5 to be precise 22% is in the hands of the monetary authorities of the People's Republic of China down incidentally from 27% in July last year now I suspect it hasn't escaped your notice that china now has the second largest economy in the world and I expect you've also spotted that it is likely to be America's principal strategic rival in the 21st century especially in the asia-pacific region quietly discreetly you haven't seen it in the headlines the Chinese are reducing their exposure to US Treasuries I believe as a result of a conscious policy decision to switch out of dollar denominated claims on the US government and into nice hard commodities and preferably the mines that produce them maybe just maybe the Chinese have noticed what the rest of the world's investors pretend not to see that the United States is on a completely unsustainable fiscal course with no apparent political means of self-correcting ladies and gentlemen military retreat from the mountains of the Hindu Kush or the plains of Mesopotamia has long been a harbinger of Imperial fall it is no coincidence after all the Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan in the annus mirabilis of 1989 which was so closely followed by the complete collapse of the Russian Empire in Eastern Europe and in Central Asia what happened just 20 years ago like the events I have described to you tonight of the 17th 18th 19th and 20th centuries is a reminder that empires do not in fact appear rise rain decline and gently fall according to some recurrent and predictable life cycle rather they behaved like all complex adaptive systems they function in apparent equilibrium for some unknowable period and then quite abruptly they collapse I believe this has implications not only for the United States but also for all countries that have come to rely on it directly or indirectly for their own security this country was born as we've discussed and grew up under the umbrella of the British Empire it's post-war foreign policy has been in essence to be a committed ally of the United States under its imperial umbrella but ladies and gentlemen what is the sudden waning of American power that I fear brings to an abrupt end the era of us hegemony in the asia-pacific region like changes to the climate or the population we tend to think of such a geopolitical shift as a protracted gradual phenomenon very far from our quotidian preoccupations but history suggests it may not be so slow acting if I may return to the terminology of the artist Thomas Cole painter of the course of empire the shift from consummation to destruction and then to desolation is not cyclical it can be very very sudden I wonder are we ready for such a dramatic change in the global balance of power but our judging by what I have heard since I arrived here last Friday the answer is no not bloody likely Australia's as far as I can see outside at least the rarefied atmosphere of the sea is Concilium are simply not thinking about that kind of stuff a favorite phrase in this country is now dramas but ladies and gentlemen dramas lie ahead and soon as the nasty fiscal arithmetic of imperial decline drives yet another great power over the edge of chaos thank you very much professor Fergusson you're talking apocalyptic terms would be about the u.s. but to be a little bit more mundane just a couple of hypotheticals the health sector spending is about 16 percent of GDP or that sort of order and the only people that really benefit better than any of us are those on high incomes if they brought it back to the level of the rest the OECD Switzerland France ourselves 9% which is what your may you know Krugman is pushing for then wouldn't a lot of the things that you're talking about be solved equally in relation to financial sector 45% of corporate profits totally over the top and totally distorted during the peak of the of the financial boom get that in order so therefore surely agree supporting the Democrats on health policy maybe and regulation but I always enjoy irony for those of you who who perhaps were less well situated than me and didn't quite hear the question was how far I would support those in the United States pressing for a more European perhaps Australian health care system in the United States as you know American health care is at once the most expensive in the world and has some of the poorest poorest outcomes in the developed world and it seems to me as a doctor some clear that great improvements could be made to the system of health care in the United States so I was naturally delighted to hear when President Obama proposed health care reform as one of his principal objectives as president I thought at last here is a president who's going to grasp the nettle of the insanely expensive Medicare system which more than anything else incidentally is propelling the United States towards the brink of fiscal chaos incredibly the Democrats managed to come up with a reform of the world's worst health care system that made it even worse and this was some achievement actually because I mean this must have taken some serious thought so now I'm not about to embrace the Democrats on health care there is a need for radical health care reform but you'd have to begin by breaking that bizarre system which originated almost by chance in World War two were by Americans rely on their employers for private health insurance in a highly uncompetitive market I was shocked to find first how much I was going to be paying for health care in Massachusetts second how much Harvard was going to be paying and third I was really stunned to find that actual quality of care is identical to that provided by the National Health Service in the UK so there is a problem that's absolutely undeniable in many ways it's the biggest problem of all but the Obama administration has completely failed to address that problem as I said earlier there are very few American politicians too prepared to talk honestly about these issues Paul Ryan is one of them and Ryan's roadmap for radical fiscal reform sets out an altogether more convincing plan for healthcare reform one I suspect that you're experts at CIS would approve of since it would above all else introduce some rational competition into the system and allow individuals to have health care insurance not by dint of being employed thanks for the question area down here I must say there are more questions that we have time for but I also do short answers given Britain and the u.s. actively used military power to underpin the Empire's do you think China can sustain its empire without similar military spending and more critically warfighting experience are we or will China have to use soft power instead that's a lovely question how far will China if it to be an imperial power have to rely on on military force to make that possible I'm part of ani things that they they don't just arise because of the exercise of military power some do some depend heavily on that but some empires if you look at the entire population of M pass through history some empires arise almost in a fit of absence of mind as C Lee famously said of the British Empire not because of a conscious decision to exercise military power but because commercial imperatives give rise to forms of overseas expansion that nobody quite planned and I think a really good illustration of this at the moment is the way that China is acquiring commodity producing assets all over the world particularly in sub-saharan Africa but not just there about half of their foreign direct investment is going in Asia right now that that's that's actually the way many empires have arisen in the past but first you you get involved and trade and you start to to buy the commodities then you find that buying them on the open market is really rather risky because the dratted price keeps changing and then you say well wouldn't it be easier if we owned the assets that produce these commodities so then you go and you build port facilities and roads or railroads and then you start to buy the mines and the next thing you know you've got to do something to make sure that these mines or or railroads aren't overrun by the locals so you send a few more guys who are a little bit more heavily armed than the last guys and next thing you know you're in the Empire business that's that's kind of how it works and you know I have you know I have a warning for China a China has been an empire of course for four centuries a land Empire gave up as you all know Sora gave up being an overseas Empire after the death of the young Emperor and it's re-entering this overseas Empire game in our time it's a dangerous game and it's a game in which the law of unintended consequences plays a really very big role thanks for the question great question over here to my right now how much gold do you earn or do you intend to keep investing in the apocalypse well I'm a poor academic and therefore don't own terribly much gold it's all sad to say if I were a wealthy Australian plutocrat I would hold 10% of my portfolio in the form of gold but no more for the simple reason that gold has been the best investment at times quite unlike these the time to buy gold as some of you in the room will know very well was in 1999 when another Scotsman the ill-fated Gordon Brown sold vast quantities of it from the Bank of England at what was it three hundred and something dollars an ounce but that was a sign of his great business acumen I wish I wish I had been there to buy I mean actually wanted to buy but I didn't have a red cent at that point so yeah ten percent is about as much as you'd want in your portfolio because I don't see gold going a whole lot further north in these deflationary times that I think we're entering thanks a lot just following on from your sort of coma so China I mean we see China as being the next emerging imperial power city here in Australia and I was just wondering if you'd make more comments about that because I see a lot of elements of risk there I'd say there's another stable political system government is running a credible fiscal imbalance and I was just wondering if you'd pass some comments about that well thanks it would take a whole evening to go through all the difficulties that China has to grapple with like any authoritarian regime that embarks on ten percent per annum growth for a period of what thirty years it's it's grappling with social and environmental costs that I'm sure Deng Xiaoping never wholly imagined having said that I think China's less politically fragile than your question implies if you look at surveys of Chinese opinion it's very striking that the Chinese government has more legitimacy in the eyes of its own people than almost any other government in the world even allowing for the fact that it's not a free society I think that tells you something and those of you who visited China and I bet you virtually everybody in this room has will know just how powerful a cement nationalism has become in modern-day China and that is something that is going to help them through difficult times they of course came through difficult times with amazing success let's just reflect for a second on what happened that was a 25% or so collapse in exports China experienced the same shock that all the Asian export economies experienced when the US and Europe went into recession and most of us prior to that would have said this will be a disaster for China in fact they completely wrote it out using stimulus in a far more effective way through their banking system than the US did and effectively dodged the bullet of of the global financial crisis so I must say I have a slightly more positive view of their of their stability not that I have a positive view of a system that is based on unfreedom both economic and political on freedom but I think one shouldn't one shouldn't sit in the West hoping that they'll trip up I hear too many people in the United States fantasizing about a China crash a China crisis it'll all fall apart this is a totally classic case of what Sigmund Warburg used to call wishful non thinking problem the Institute for private enterprise of competing Institute we're in favor of competition so that's great I'm very pleased to hear it a two-part question the first part is do you have any children or do you plan to have any children I hope so because that will improve your understanding of debt capitalist societies such as we live in children do tend eventually to a debt takes a long time but most of mine are now actually working this the second part of my question is whether the I acknowledge that there is a serious debt problem in the United States as there was in Australia in the 1980s and particularly in Victoria about which I wrote a lot of materials but is this a serious a problem facing the world as extremist Islamism well thank you for those two questions first of all first of all a cursory glance at Wikipedia would reveal that I have three children one by age 61 girl age 15 so teenagers the most expensive sort and an 11 year old whose name is in fact Laughlin and named him after Lachlan Macquarie bet you didn't know that and do I intend to have more yes have children taught me a lot about debt ex-wives have taught me more I hadn't said that much and is radical Islam a bigger threat than the fiscal crisis the United States that they are in some ways two sides of the same coin and of course I'm not the expert in the room on this subject you know who is then really why you asked me to give this lecture she got the round of applause earlier not me but if the United States fails to address the kind of problems that I'm talking about here then it will not be able to contend with the threat of radical Islam simple case in point that I own and I and our distinguished guests were discussing over dinner how do you deal with Iran if one of the most explicitly radical Islamic regimes in the world is intent on acquiring nuclear weapons and the United States is suffering from a fundamental fiscal overstretch how do you deal with that problem so I think these problems are of equal magnitude and the reason that I worry so much about this fiscal crisis is not because I have an unhealthy interest in bond yields it's because I have a healthy interest in the stability of the global order so thanks for those two questions over here to the right professor following on from just your last sentence you've told us a lot about the chaos and the approach to the abyss on a more positive note would you have a three four ten point plan if I was the embodiment of America or Empire what would be your five or six point plan to withdraw from the abyss before it's too late what a wonderfully American question actually I wouldn't give you five or six points I'll give you two if President Obama were here and had asked that question what should I do I would say first you need to get Paul Volcker to go on prime-time television within the next week and explain to the American people and the world how your administration is going to get the federal deficits down not to 5% but to zero percent over the next ten years you need a fiscal plan and by the way here are ways in which you could do it here are the ways in which you could solve the Medicare and Social Security problems through radical reform here are the reforms you could make up the tax code to simplify it in order to make it easier for Americans to pay their taxes here are the cuts you could actually make in corporation tax if you introduced a federal sales tax so that would be 0.1 but but get Paul Volcker to announce it don't do it yourself get somebody with the credibility of the man who helped slay the inflation dragon back in 79 to slay the deflation dragon that we currently face today my second piece of advice to him would be you need a grand strategy right now your foreign policy consists of making speeches in which you say that you're nicer than your predecessor and everybody should like you more you've given this speech in a whole bunch of different places you tried it in Istanbul you tried it in Cairo you even did one to the Chinese in Tokyo that's not a foreign policy it's more like a Facebook entry so how about a grand strategy how about deciding what US foreign policy is going to be in the 21st century as China becomes your principal rival rather than as it has been up until now at the principal source of vendor finance to the American consumer those would be my answers to the questions I haven't been asked by the president but I live in hope now I'd like to ask you about a question in regards to the dismal sites and the perennial debate about government intervention versus a lack of government intervention I'm gonna use some Australian terminology your mates are Paul Krugman and I saw your other mates Joseph Stiglitz on national TV last night and they're talking about a second round of stimulus and perhaps a third or a fourth if required can you help us to understand what is it about the limits of Keynesianism and what is it that you understand that there is a limit to Keynesianism stimulus versus these other economists that seem to believe that there is no limits can you can you help us explain why there is this dichotomous controversy in regards to limited or unlimited stimulus Thanks the the debate that I've been having with the man you term my mate since I suppose April of last year is a debate that's repeatedly been caricatured and in the press as if to suggest that I'm paranoid about inflation and want a balanced budget tomorrow which is not what I said then and has never been what I've said my argument has been as I try to make clear tonight that if the United States has a fiscal policy that implies it will run a deficit every year from now until 2080 which is its current policy that is not Keynesianism that is a fiscal crisis that is not a policy which john maynard keynes would have approved you know keynes once said before he shuffled off this coil that he was much less Keynesian than the american Keynesian z– that's become ever more true as they've become ever more Keynesian Paul Krugman is a clever man and has made major contributions on the economics of trade but on questions of fiscal policy he seems to me to be entirely out of touch with reality and that that isn't just my view that is the view of Ken Rogoff my Harvard colleague who's a practitioner of the dismal science remember I'm not an economist I have the great advantage of not being an economist I'm a historian so I don't just look at the theory that you derive from the general theory of 1936 I look at what happened when countries did try Keynesianism year after year after year because we've run this experiment before folks it's called Japan and what you discover in Japan is that if you use deficit finance if you achieve aim to achieve recovery through fiscal stimulus it doesn't necessarily work but you do end up with a heck of a lot of debt plus 200% of GDP in the Japanese case or if you look back to the post-war period when we all became Kenyans remember Richard Nixon we're all Kansans now what happened governments ran deficits year in and year out they thought to prime the economy and we got stagflation we got zero or low growth and we got double-digit inflation so you know from a historians point of view it's it's a little bit strange suddenly in the midst of this crisis to think Keynes can save us and to forget all the advances that the dismal science made in the period after Keynes's death all all the advances seem to have vanished from Paul Krugman's mind and I think that's what comes of writing a column in the New York Times it's a very dangerous thing for a serious academic to do I mean I may be afraid we've got time for two more David Russell will be one and Alex Turner with the other I'm sorry for the others thank you Thank You mr. chairman professor you talked earlier about historical cycles and the early American literature the Federalist Papers talked about the distinction between a republic and a democracy and perhaps that's all about the point that leadership is telling the truth the problems in this country may be external rather than domestic but their problems nonetheless and we're in a situation where the Australian idea of leadership seems to be somebody whose recent political career probably resembles Lady Macbeth pretending to be Mary Poppins what what what and other countries are not much better it's a good line can I steal us you're welcome I'm a lawyer plagiarism it's a great article but what I mean this is clearly a problem in a whole range of countries how in a historical sense do you say this is capable of being dealt with or do we just simply have to increasingly have political debate reduced to trivia and people not posting real issues how do we get better leadership in the West how can our liberal and more or less capitalist democracies find Churchill's instead of and I won't mention any names Macbeth Poppins figures it's a huge challenge but you have to reassure yourself it's not the first time that question has been asked in fact throughout the history of Western political theory people have worried about the way in which democracy would fail to generate quality leadership it was the great preoccupation of at least some of the founding fathers that if democracy were given free rein the United States would at worst produce a Napoleon and at best a series of mediocrity so when Tocqueville visited the United States on his famous trip that produced democracy and America he he almost made a virtue of this by saying the great thing you have to understand about the American political system is it's designed for mediocrity 'he's to be elected but the good news is that the United States at least tends to find leadership in crisis tends to find its leadership when finally all the alternatives as Churchill said have been exhausted I think that's also been true of my own country of the United Kingdom when you're feeling depressed about democracy as a system remember Churchill saying that it's the worst of all possible systems apart from all the others that have been tried from time to time in 1938 Churchill was an unpopular figure in the country and an even more unpopular one in the House of Commons but in Britain's are of need in 1940 when we stood alone he was there and so I have a fundamental competence that our system for all its many flaws and for all the Medi aqua teas that it throws up when times are good we'll find great leaders when the times are tough thanks very much Thank You German professor you've talked about the stability of the international order and and mentioned some historical prisons of which the Mississippi Bubble perhaps brings the trust and we look at the overall situation because it isn't just America it's a thing that's been spread like a bit of a cancer you could say and it may sound really weird to quote presumably an early John Maynard Keynes who's supposed to have said the surest way to overturn the social and economic fabric is to Deportes the currency because it harnesses all the forces of economics on the side of destruction you know I mean one cannot help feeling that where we have arrived at and where the may well be a precipice is the result of exactly that process and and you know really some you know tests of any sort of social order I mean I don't know how you can easily comment on that oh I can you'd be amazed how easily I can comment on it if it's the only way of getting back to my glass of wine funnily enough that that quote from Keynes isn't really a quote from Cannes Cannes made it up and attributed it to Lenin and if you read the ascent of money I explained where it really came from it wasn't Lenin it was another Bolshevik and he said roughly that the best way of getting rid of the bourgeoisie was to destroy the Russian currency and indeed the Bolsheviks did just that many people today are worried about hyperinflation or inflation as the end game of all of this we kind of fear maybe even that's what the Chinese fear that in the end we'll print our way out of these huge deaths and there's considerable historical evidence to support the proposition that highly indebted economies eventually do resort to inflation that's true in the case of Argentina on more than one occasion it was true of course in Germany after the frost World War and I I could go on trouble is it's harder to generate inflation than it looks and this is an important point to remember Ben Bernanke has famously been quoted as saying that if if it came to it he would fly a helicopter over the United States dropping dollar bills out the windows to stave off deflation but if people's expectations become deflationary then even doing that might not work since they might just Bank the money put it in their savings accounts not spend it so one of the big risks we face today is not in fact inflation we should be so lucky the risk we face today is that the biggest economy in the world tips over into deflation of course the values of bourgeois society don't depend exclusively on the stability of the currency they are as usual the Bolsheviks were oversimplifying things and I want to leave you with this thought what we call Western civilization those of us who aren't too embarrassed to use the phrase consists of more than just money more than just the capitalist system though that's clearly one of its foundations it also consists of the scientific method testing your hypothesis and trying to prove it wrong it also consists of the rule of law subordinating all other concerns particularly the concerns of the powerful to the rule of law transparent law law which upholds above all else the individuals freedom and private property rights it consists of the medicine that keeps us all much healthier than I certainly would have been if I'd been born in the time of Lachlan Macquarie atta they gave us five five minutes of the life he led from the age of 15 and above all it consists of a peculiar ethic an ethic that combines a sense of the need to work for fulfillment with a kind of social obligation to those around us and I hope that in this lecture I've tried to at least touch some of those points and to raise awareness of their continuing enduring importance you know Australia is a kind of beacon in its way and maybe it's more of a beacon than it's ever been now that Asia is on the rise and if you are the great outpost of Western civilization in the East you have a far bigger responsibility to the world than you ever had before let's hope you if not your political leaders are aware of that thank you very much indeed this is big ideas from the ABC

The Central Banks of the U.S., Europe and Japan and the Impact on Each Economy



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The Central Banks of the U.S., Europe and Japan and the Impact on Each Economy

Multiple Central Banks are now engaging in “unconventional” strategies in response to economic weakness following the 2008 financial crisis, from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s inflation-targeting to the European Central Bank going past the zero bound to negative interest rates. As an internationally-minded investor, Wilbur L. Ross, Jr., Chairman & CEO of WL Ross & Co. LLC, will provide his thoughts on Central Bank policies around the world, discussing what he feels are the steps that need to be taken to improve the world economy.

Speaker:
Wilbur L. Ross, Jr., Chairman & CEO, WL Ross & Co. LLC; Chairman, Japan Society

Presider:
Daniel Bases, Correspondent, Thomson Reuters

good afternoon I'm a correspondent at Thomson Reuters in New York covering global investing economic and foreign policy and today well just to prime the pump as I say we have global investors pouring cash into equities over the last 18 to 24 months or so in response to loose monetary policies of the world's major central banks that's a frustration of a lack of better alternatives perhaps as and that's lifted stocks to record highs and many believe the bets that economic and corporate earnings growth will be soon justified sorry will soon justify those lofty levels at the same time yields on sovereign bonds plum multi-year lows driven in large part by expectations at global economic growth and deflation are still not responding to stimulus so this has been exacerbated by the geopolitical reductions that politicians central bankers investors and well I think just generally most anyone of good conscious conscience is concerned and appalled so in short the impact – and the response from the Great Recession still lives with us however recent developments in central bank policy show of growing divergence rates are poised to rise in the United States while Europe moves haltingly through the process of addressing its weak economic growth and fiscal austerity the two are not mutually exclusive meanwhile in Japan just overnight the BOJ drove a short-term interest rate in below zero essentially paying to lend money to the market and this steps up an already unprecedented effort to inject some inflation into its economy so this afternoon we have the pleasure of hearing from one of the world's pre-eminent investors and the chairman of the Japan Society Wilbur Ross in this forum he needs a little introduction and today we'll hear his views on central bank policies a private and private equity investing Titan with a specialty in distressed assets mr. Ross his firm WL Ross & Co has been investing in Japan for over 17 years so please welcome Wilbur Ross to the stage thank you very much for that introduction the chart on the screen is a real illustration of the different ways the various central banks have responded to the crisis at different points in time I'll leave it up for your easy reference during the talk and you'll be relieved to hear it's the only slide we're going to put up so you won't you won't be too bombarded the Federal Reserve Bank as you can see in the chart a tree accelerated its activity in 2012 but when it announced on June 13th 2013 that it would begin tapering its 85 billion per month purchases of US Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities the Dow Jones Industrial Average immediately dropped five hundred and sixty points since then there have been ten billion dollar monthly reductions and the program will soon end yet as you know equity markets are hitting all-time highs yields on Treasury bonds make new lowest daily and the US economy is slowly getting stronger meanwhile Bank of Japan has been the most aggressive buyer as you can see from the chart their total balance sheet now equals almost half the gross domestic product of the country an extraordinary percentage but that economy is still struggling and the European Central Bank constantly talks about quantitative easing but has not yet bought a single bond in quantitative easing most recently ECB did go to an unprecedented negative overnight interest and said it will now begin to buy asset-backed securities in October the first question therefore is what was the real impact of quantitative easing the most optimistic study I've seen is that long-term yields were reduced by about 200 basis points two percentage points and that is a reduction which the Congressional Budget Office estimates effects GDP by more than one percentage point per year former Fed Chairman Bernanke said in 2011 that the second round of asset purchases lowered long-term interest rates itself by close to 30 basis points he also estimates that each hypothetical unanticipated 25 basis point cut in the Fed Funds target causes a 1% rise in broad stock indices on the reverse side Carlo serosa of the New York Fed calculates that a 100 basis point increase in the yield on five year Treasuries would cause a five point three percent drop in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index the impact of monetary policy on markets therefore is clear but its impact on individual sectors of the economy varies greatly McKinsey Global Institute estimated that quantitative easing added between 1 and 3 percentage points to GDP that it reduced unemployment by one percentage point and avoided deflation but surprisingly according to McKinsey the major beneficiaries of low rates were actually government's the US the UK and the eurozone governments which saved 1.6 trillion dollars in interest expense through 2012 and more since then as a result sovereign and corporate bond prices in the US UK and eurozone appreciated by 16 trillion dollars meanwhile non-financial corporations saved 710 billion dollars of interest but households surprisingly lost 630 billion the reason is that benefits to the indebted younger households were more than offset by reduced interest income to older households u.s. house prices according to McKinsey were boosted 15 percent despite tighter credit standards and oversupply eurozone banks net interest margin declined 230 billion dollars from 2007 through 2012 while the US banks interest margin during the same period rose by a hundred and fifty billion dollars and this helps explain why Europe's banking crises continued while US banks became stronger the effect of these huge numbers however was blunted by countervailing factors for example US unemployment in June was the lowest post crisis but participation in the workforce also dropped in that case to a 36 year low there were 4.6 million job openings in the US and the Concordia of 2014 that's the most in seven years but technological advances have limited employment opportunities for the less well-educated 80% of college graduates are in the workforce but fewer than 50% of the people without a high school degree considered themselves to be in the workforce manufacturing jobs used to be the high wage positions for what less well-educated people but there are eight million fewer such jobs since 1980 also low-wage jobs were 22% of those lost in the recession but 44% of those gained back since then well high paying jobs were 41 percent of those lost but only 30% of those gained a second factor is that Social Security disability payments have soared with half of the 4.9 million dropouts claiming such hard to measure disabilities as back pain and psychological problems some dropouts collect other government social benefits the total of which rose from the 30-year average of roughly 12% of personal income in the u.s. to a peak of almost 18% during the recent recession it has declined only slightly since then in 46 point two million Americans 14 point 8 percent of the population are on food stamps the so-called snap program this amounts to 1/2 percent of our gross domestic product the practical problem caused by lower workforce participation is that in order for the economy to grow every three employed people most log along – who are not in addition the US banks have not transmitted monetary policy to the real economy central banks make money available and cheaper so that it will be borrowed and spent creating economic growth but the banks generally have lent kept they have lent their trillions of dollars of excess reserves overnight to the Fed so the money never hit the real economy reason is that bankers were still shell-shocked from the financial crisis and were so beaten upon by Congress the regulators and attorneys general that they tightened credit standards these credit constraints reversed the deteriorating credit standards which had artificially boosted the economy through 2007 back in 1983 the highest income 5% americans had 80 cents per dollar of income in debt in the bottom 95% had only 60 cents of debt per dollar of income but by 2007 the top 5 percent cut their indebtedness to 65 cents per dollar of income well the bottom 95% more than doubled their indebtedness relative to income to $1 and 40 cents per dollar of income between 2003 and 2007 homeowners withdrew 1.1 trillion dollars from the value of their houses by refinancing their mortgages at lower rates the next complication is our largest population block the 20 something-year-old Millennials unlike Baby Boomers they're forming families later having fewer children and therefore are less interested in buying a home to spite low interest rates and home building has been one of the weakest parts of our economy if homes built last year just equaled the long-term average of 1.5 million new homes gross domestic product would have been one percentage point higher and unemployment would have been one percentage point lower the problem is not over supply from the earlier housing boom in fact for the entire period 2002 through 2013 that period is cumulatively 2 million homes below trend despite the over building in the early part of the period these structural problems have blunted the impact of quantitative easing and also make it difficult to push inflation up toward 2% for years productivity has grown at 3.5% a year and wages only 2% in July wages finally rose by 2.6 percent but it's too early to tell if this begins a new trend the next question is why Treasury rates continued to decline this year despite the tapering a major reason is supply and demand since December 2013 net Treasury issuances plus agency mortgage-backed security issuances have dropped by much more than the amount of the tapering and they actually have caused a bit of the shortage of both types of securities there will be a harder test next year because QE will have ended but it's unlikely that issuances will continue to decline to put this into perspective 85 billion dollars of monthly purchases for a year Ament 1 trillion and $20,000,000 21 trillion and 20 billion dollars a buying power about half of that continued in 2014 so there will be another big decline in buying next year just when the Fred may be beginning to raise lost short-term rates but 45% of all sovereign debt in the whole world now yields less than 1% so international investors very well may buy more Treasuries and perhaps offset the end of quantitative easing in contrast to the Fed the ECB has spoken boldly but has been strongly risk-averse as you can see in the chart over the last two years its balance sheet has shrunk by ten percent of the euro zone's gross domestic product and in the Greek bailout ECB cancelled part of the privately-owned bonds but insisted on preserving the full amount of bonds it held even though it had bought them at very large discounts from par more recently ECB forced forty seven point five percent of all deposits over a hundred thousand euros in the banks in Cyprus into common stock and prohibited withdrawals of the remaining deposits for extended time periods meanwhile Mario Draghi governor of this ECB repeatedly said he would do quote whatever was necessary but as I mentioned so far has bought no QE bonds perhaps he was stalling until the banks became better equipped to transmit quantitative easing to the real economy the asset quality review will be released in October and an anticipation of it the banks have raised many billions of euros of new equity and the ECB waited until two weeks ago to retain Blackrock to advise on a program for buying what it described as simple and transparent asset backed securities however more than seventy percent of the hundred and fourteen billion euros of asset backed securities issued in the first half of 2014 already serve as collateral for ACB loans so I believed that the effect of that may not be very significant unless European that ACB dies the most junior tranches and thereby removes the whole securitization from the bank balance sheets I have no idea of whether they have any intention of doing that but if they don't I doubt that this will have much effect meanwhile the very anticipation of quantitative easing in the EU has driven yields even on weaker credits such as Spain and Italy's sovereign debt – below those of the US Treasury and the German 2-year bond is actually trading at a negative interest rate the Euro has weakened 5% as a result of all this since May thereby boosting EU exports now in fairness the EU ECB confronted three unique problems the prior failure of bank regulators to assure asset quality extremely high loan to deposit ratios and of course Europe's sovereign debt crisis the European regulators relied too heavily on management's evaluation of loaned credits where as US bank examiners carefully evaluate the way management's have classified loans and combining poor asset quality with high loan to deposit ratios proved to be a deadly formula u.s. bank loans rarely exceed 90% of deposits but European banks had far more loans than deposits for example Bank of Ireland's peak ratio was that low were 170% of deposits there for a given amount of non-performing loans was almost twice as high relative to equity as in America the second problem of the banks was Allah quiddity these excess loans were funded by hot money principally from money market funds and in the European banking crisis these funds stopped renewing CDs and the interbank lending market came to a halt at the same time Northern European savers started to withdraw funds from southern European banks the ECB provided some liquidity but did so by means of well collateralized loans to the banks and at the same time the troika required banks to reduce their loan to deposit ratios causing European banks instead of extending more loans to sell loans even good loans Bank of Ireland for example sold 10 billion euros of performing loans at a discount of 8% 92 euro cents on the dollar such sales reduce the ECB's risk but it made bank credit less available and that largely offset the positive impact of lower rates think about it if you get turned down for a loan doesn't make any difference whether you got turned down and a 5 percent interest rate environment or a 3 percent environment in either case you got no borrowing meanwhile the sovereign debt crisis caused the –use fiscal deficits to shrink to 2.5 percent of GDP this slowed the economy's as well in addition imposed further losses on the banks especially the Greek default subsequently the ECB again extended some very well collateralized long-term loans to banks with the proceeds supposedly dedicated to new lending and meanwhile the banks raised lots of equity generating excess reserves but just as in the United States they lent these reserves to the ECB overnight rather than to customers to deal with this ECB recently took the unprecedented step of charging banks for the privilege of depositing funds there but even doubling the negative interest rate has not done very much good so at the big Jackson Hole Conference of central bank governors mr. Draghi more or less demanded that EU governments coordinate structural and fiscal reforms with each other and with the ECB he made it clear that monetary policy alone was not powerful enough to solve Europe's woes credit markets interpreted this favorably and yields on everything declined sharply again proving that financial markets are much easier to move than economies I believe that mr. Draghi is correct and that unless the EU leadership acts accordingly many member states will remain in recession and it will be more and more difficult to deal with the 6% of the total labor force that has been unemployed for more than a year think about it more than 6% unemployed for more than a year that's roughly equal to our total unemployment ratio so it's a big chronic problem I was especially impressed by Draghi's observation that the countries with the most flexible labor laws reduced unemployment the most rapidly clearly laws in many of the countries that were intended to protect protect workers turned out to be counterproductive these are unique problems which the u.s. did not face nor did Japan in in either neither country where the banks as over-leveraged as in Europe in European businesses are twice as dependent on banks as our companies in the u.s. the quantitative easing is new to the US and the EU it is old news to the Bank of Japan which one in and out of it as you can see from the chart and now is strongly back in AB anomic s– including QE initially caused a huge rise in the Nikkei average from the end of November 2012 to May of 2013 and as I mentioned before the Bo J's balance sheet is now almost 50 percent of the gross domestic product of the country all of that drove the yen more relative to the dollar by a lot but for the first time a declining yen so far has failed to improve Japanese exports because so many companies had moved production offshore then on April 1st Japan raised the v80 from five percent to eight this showed mr. Abhi's determination to deal with Japan's high level of sovereign debt but unfortunately it's near-term effect on the economy was quite negative true retail sales boomed by six percent in the last low-rate month but then dropped 6.4 percent in april and continued to slump until july when they rose a half a percent year over year despite typhoon neoguri nonetheless June quarter GDP dropped at the huge annual rate of 7.1% and the yen has fallen by 3.7 percent more since mid-august to about 106 yen to the dollar the lowest since the Lehman crisis itself one bit of good news is that Japanese people now respond in surveys that they believe inflation will approach Bo J's 2% target over the next two years and in the first sign of wage inflation was in July's two and a half percent increase the best gain in 17 years the lag and wage gain is surprising because Japan's three point six percent unemployment rate is really effectively full employment now July's gain was mainly in one-time bonuses so what's really needed is for base wages to go up to have a sustained impact on consumer spending I believe that unless base wages do increase soon the best way to jumpstart the chat a Panisse economy would be joining the trans-pacific partnership but to do that Mister obby must further reform the politically powerful agricultural sector hopefully he will deal with agriculture before his currently solid fifty percent approval rating declines and next year has got another big decision to make because there's a scheduled increase in v80 from 8 percent to 10 but unless the economy improves it may have to be postponed last week's cabinet changes re-emphasize mr. Abhi's focus on reforms especially of the health care system and Japan's 1.3 trillion dollar National Pension Fund and the inclusion of so many women in the cabinet also symbolizes his determination to increase female participation in the workforce and in the executive ranks but he needs more detailed initiatives than these symbolic moves and coining the phrase women anomic s– hopefully tangible measures will be forthcoming I hope this tour of three major central banks illustrates how complex and difficult their task is and how other phenomena can offset monetary policy elected officials around the world must recognize that central banks do not shoot silver bullets monetary policy needs to be reinforced by complementary fiscal policy and most importantly by structural reform that may be the most important lesson that we can learn from the recent recession and the experiments with unconventional monetary policy the second most important lesson may turn out to be that if we make the back to safe we may be endangering the whole economy finally ever since the Weimar Republic central bankers have worried about runaway inflation the globalization technological innovation and excessive sovereign debt may mean that deflation is what we should feared the most and try to combat the most in the future thank you very much an interesting look at the three major central banks but the last bit you spoke about Japan I was wondering if you could expand a little bit more on the Bo J's policies and the quote-unquote pay any price to break the back of deflation simply enough is is Japan getting enough from AB anomic Sat this point what's holding it back well I think what's holding it back is history Japan has been more or less in a deflationary mode for about as long as I can remember now my eh your memory fades so it may have been a period before that but I think what they have done a very good job is what I mentioned in the surveys they have to some degree change the psychology if you took that same survey two years ago before a dynamics nobody would have said they'd be 2% inflation within 2 years so there has been progress changing that what I think is missing is he mr. abate did a pretty good job in the spring jawboning the large companies trying to get them to increase wages they did make some progress with the bonuses but we haven't seen sustained increase in the wages and that's a problem that's a problem here in the United States as well it's a problem in the United States as well indeed but it's a problem that to some degree all the developed countries are faced Japan of course has the other problem which is it's the old eldest and most rapidly aging of the economies so you're having more and more people move into a period where they have to live off their savings as opposed to making more earnings so that's like in the u.s. where three working people have to lug along two non workers it's almost that bad in Japan this this idea of divergence and policy that I referenced earlier as an investor where does this make you look for opportunity and more importantly where do you avoid well but a Sun in our case is kind of driven us to the periphery of Europe right after the crisis we were very active buying banks in the United States mostly with FDIC approval I think we probably bought more banks under those circumstances than any other private equity firm but now that the u.s. system is pretty well healthy we started to move to Europe so we helped our Richard Branson by northern rock from the UK government for urgent money which has proven to be a very good thing we then went in to Bank of Ireland at a time when the sovereign debt the air was yielding close to 15% and that that Ireland has now turned around pretty well in fact Ireland is the country that mr. Draghi emphasized when he talked about how important flexible labor policies are to recovering jobs after the recession then after Ireland most recently we bought into euro Bank in Greece and then quite recently into the Bank of Cyprus but I also had mentioned and the talk was really very severely hurt by the truckies policies so we've been going farther and farther into the periphery and I think in a sense that's what most investors have been doing do you see emerging market death trading at very low yields do you see high-yield bonds trading at very low yields and though unusually low premiums two already low Treasuries people have become desperate for rate of return and I fear that in the debt markets and to all too often people are substituting coupon for creditworthiness and I think that a few years from now is going to have a severe consequence on their portfolios is that it as a function as the US heads towards that higher rate environment do you see a big impact for emerging markets or is it pretty well telegraphed and insulated at this point well the merging markets are inherently very volatile that they track better with Nasdaq or some sort of small stock index than they do with Dow Jones or anything else and some of the countries have individual problems we've all read about what's going on in Argentina and you've written probably more about it than any living human being um but Brazil has some serious problems a lot of those countries have run into significant problems of one kind or another most importantly by the decline in the bull market for commodity prices many of the more successful emerging market countries like Brazil were very natural resource dependent I'd like to make sure that we have time for questions to the audience so just with a provider that given that we do have a limited amount of time please say who you are your affiliation make it a short question and please make sure that it is a question so don't have any hands we'll start how would you like to do it maybe one at a time or sure I'd rather do one okay this gentleman right here wait wait wait for the microphone please would be the effect of a drop in the corporate tax rates from 35% to say 20 or even 15% I'm thinking specifically of the two trillion dollars it's held overseas by American corporations but what the effect would that have on investment by corporations in the u.s. employment and the GDP a couple of questions there in terms if it were just the corporate tax rates that went down and nothing else happened it would obviously be a tremendous stimulus to the economy for a couple of reasons one would enhance corporate profitability and cash flow beyond even where it is and second it would increase somewhat the federal deficit and if you believe in fiscal policy and stimulating the economy it would accomplish that but I think it's very very remote that even if Republicans get hold of the Congress I doubt that you would just have a reduction in corporate tax and nothing else to offset it I think the probabilities are that if they did reduce the basic rate they change some of the deductions they change something to have it come out more or less balanced so I think well the hypothetical would be very powerful I very much doubt it would happen in that fashion in terms of the repatriation of the money that's bottled up outside the US I think the problems are twofold one is that our rates are about the highest and and that's a discouragement and it's why companies are doing these things like inversions and all that the real problem isn't so much with the corporation's trying to minimize their tax I think that's a perfectly legitimate concept the real problem is our tax rates are too high and that discourages people from reinvesting in the US so think about it if you can invest in a more rapidly growing country with lower labor costs in a lower tax rate why on earth wouldn't would you put the factory anywhere but in one of those countries it just makes sense so I think what we really do need is overall tax reform and instead of the what seems to be a popular concept now of using taxes somehow to punish people and companies that have succeeded I think we ought to figure out a way to use the tax system to foster economic growth I think that would be better national policy that's on earth thank you ball toss from bgd holdings well well thank you for your thoughtful remarks Larry Summers in recent times has been raising this issue of secular stagnation and fundamentally making the point which I think you'd agree with that the logic behind quantitative easing and the monetary policies that we have seen has a more demand side demand creating side impetus to it in fact yesterday in the FT Larry Summers writes that there may be a supply-side constraint that is building which will hemorrhage medium to long term growth even at a 2% rate unless you begin to really do some fundamental structural reforms outside of the monetary policy arena immigration tax reform better childcare policies those are some of the issues there five six things he lays out I'd be interested in your thoughts on that well as I said I very much agree with mario draghi that there are a structural reforms needed some here in the US a lot in Europe particularly in some of the southern European countries so I am a believer that you should have a coordination between fiscal policy and monetary but I do think it's also right that the central banks should be technically independent from the politicians because otherwise they're going to be very tempted to use it just as a crutch remember back to the early part of the talk white spoke about the McKenzie report the biggest beneficiaries of quantitative easing were the governments because they're the biggest borrowers therefore they got the biggest benefit from tax reduction and it's the real one of the major reasons why the budget deficit in the US has gone down from where it had been because not only is the government paying less on its debt it's also capturing the profits that the Federal Reserve Bank is required by law to turn it over to it when the Federal Reserve was borrowing money from the banks that 50 basis points and buying long-term bonds at 300 basis points you can imagine the spread they would make probably hundreds of so billion dollars a year flowing to the Treasury so it's weird that quantitative easing which was really intended to stimulate the private sector did more had more benefit to the public sector than it did to private this gentleman the fund thank you I'm Charlie Kimball with the Korea Center for national finance picking up on your phrase that maybe we should fear deflation I'm wondering to what extent do you think that Fed policy may be about to make a mistake given last quarter was very strong this quarter may be strong in my mind those are just paybacks for the lousy first quarter if if they look at strong quarters maybe they will raise rates prematurely is that a is that a risk well there's a risk either way there's a risk they'll do it too soon and there's the risk they'll do it too late my guess is given Janet yellen's particular focus on unemployment I very much doubt that she'll make the mistake of doing it too soon I think ending quantitative easing is a very different matter from also raising the short-term rates the Fed has much better control over short-term rates and can do that judiciously and also can change that on a dime so it's the most flexible tool that they have the problem with it right now is now that you're essentially at zero rates there's very little more they could do short-term for stimulation and that's why they tried the experiment of the longer-term markets but on that question which is on every every investors mind looking at the market predictions second or third quarter of next year where do you fall on that calendar III think probably but right around the end of the second quarter that that's based on the assumption that the economy will grow well north of 2% but less than 3% annual great and that unemployment will continue to edge down partly because it really is and partly I don't think that labor force participation is going to go back up in a very meaningful way so I think the the question the Fed has been grappling with if you read all the minutes of the speeches at Jackson all the conference the whole question they have is how much slack is there in the labor market and to the degree that there's a lot of slack there's plenty of room to the degree that maybe on more right that there's less slack that means sooner might be better than later so do you think then talking about slack in the market the expectation that wage growth is going to come back do you expect I mean how meaningful do you think that wage growth will be I don't think it's going to be overwhelming for the reasons that I described hourly wage growth has not been going up very much at all I think the last statistic that went up six cents an hour on a base of something like $24 an hour that's not a that's barely a measurable impact I do think there's getting to be more and more structural unemployment because people are that schools are not giving people the skills that they need to find reasonable jobs in a more technologically advanced economy and then there's a peculiarities of our social welfare system somebody is getting food stamps and all these are their benefits they earned the tax rate friends and all that as they begin to earn money in those early tranches their effective tax rate on the incremental money they own gets to be almost a hundred percent so there's a specific disincentive for people getting a big bundle of these social benefits it's to go back to work who would go back to work to make only a few pennies difference from doing nothing well that's a there's some social questions there as well as just economic pride and such that's true but dollars are pretty powerful that's true next question this gentleman two very brief questions I'm sorry tell me who you are and yes I'm James Lee and I wasn't financed here in New York I'm with a particular Sun bank do you see any a risk you know to the global economy similar to what happened in 2008 do you see any kind of like systemic you know risk to the global economy that's my first question and second I would love to hear your thoughts Democratic from what I don't know I mean that's a question I mean do you see any risk and my second question is what do you think about about long-term trends in the prices for gas and oil you know in the energy markets those questions to answer thoroughly would take about a week I'll try to give a very short version I think if anything we're pushing the banks too far with all the new measures the risk weighted assets the capital asset reserves all this stuff putting special high capital requirements on the most on the biggest banks all those things are going to be fined from a risk mitigation point of view if you define the risk as being those institutions blowing up my concern is politicians are very good at solving last year's problem and less good at trying to anticipate this year's problem and I think last year's problem a couple years ago problem was the one that banks got a little bit out of control the way the politicians talk about that you would think there was no banking regulation whatsoever so I think there's plenty of complicity implicit or explicit on the part of the banking regulators that they let this whole thing get to where they did but that's not something they like to talked about they like to talk about the bad bankers so I think there's minimal risk of the the financial system blowing up in that sense I think where there's a lot of risk what I tried to mention a little in the talk namely that by making the financial system so safe and so over capitalized and so timid that you don't get the relaxation of credit that you need to get business going banking inherently consists of taking in short-term deposits and making long-term loans that's the nature of it that's what it's always been that's the only way they can really make a spread with the exception the other way to make a spread is to take a risk in lending so if you pretty well kept them from taking real risks in lending they are going to take that the timing mismatch risk but I don't see that blowing up the system what I do think is that it's going to mean credit will eventually be more expensive and less available than it otherwise would have and I think that has long-term negative economic consequences as to the price of oil and gas we are long exploration and production ownership in dry gas and that turned out to be not a very good idea so far because so much natural gas comes as a sort of free bribe byproduct of oil in the short sale developments that they almost don't care what they get for the natural gas so until and unless we get the granting by the administration of more natural gas export permits of which is only granted a handful in this another dozen or so if he grants all those then prices will start to come up domestically because price of natural gas here is three dollars and some change in mcf in Europe and in Asia it runs between twelve and fifteen dollars and it only costs about a dollar and a half to liquify it transport it to those destinations and then regale Sofia there so there's a tremendous arbitrage potential if he'll grant more licenses so I think if he does price of natural gas in this country will go up some and will come down in the rest of the world maybe it stabilizes that five or so dollars somewhere in that that range for US oil to me the biggest unknown is you tell me what's going to happen in the Mideast and in Russia Ukraine and then I could give you some idea what would happen to aisle price but we're in the world where there's always the potential for some meaningful dislocation of supply due to the armed conflicts that are going on to the degree you had that you could have a real spike in the price of oil short of that I doubt that it goes much over a hundred a time for one more question this gentleman in the front hi my name is Jeff Nathan I'm an MBA student and NYU Stern my question is to your earlier point your speech you can see a lot of actions by the Obey administration recently new leadership the pension they're actually buying equity indices you know how important do you think are is the movement of you know savings into risk assets in Japan for real economic growth and what would you be looking for just you know and to see if it's kind of working well Japan does the some structural reforms most importantly in agriculture as you know that's a Greek out your segment the small in population but very powerful politically because of the way votes are weighted for the deed but it really needs to be fixed it's a big burden on Japan I think consumers would spend more on other things if food didn't take such a big bite out of their budget it's so most tragic there are four hundred thousand hectares of unused farmland bright as we sit here that's about as big as the old land mass of say drew province just to put it in perspective if he could just activate that and put it in the hands of large-scale farming like we have in the US then automation comes in proper means of fertilization come in all kinds of things happen that would transform it and not only would that be directly very good for the economy it also would facilitate Japan's entry into the trans-pacific partnership the two sticky points there our agriculture and autos and the autumn is probably getting be less complicated as Japanese car companies move so much production offshore but in terms of agriculture Japan put in some a bilateral agreement with I think it was either Australia and New Zealand recently where there were some cuts in their tariffs on certain kinds of agricultural imports but the cut was from 36 or so percent to 18 or so percent and it started to phase in over an 18 year time period well trans-pacific partnership snuck on wait around for 18 years so if that's the most they would do in a bilateral treaty negotiation I'd be very surprised if they'd be removed remove enough tariff barriers in the trans-pacific partnership in order to meet what they would have to do so I'm getting a little pessimistic about the TPP even though I really do think that's as close to a silver bullet as we're gonna find for Japan near-term I think that I always think of people who deal in distressed assets is ultimately optimists because you're looking at something in your soul yeah I see you know value there so as an in that vein turning back to Europe and indulge me for one last question when you see strains and say Germany is it simply a question of the Russia Ukraine conflict is there something deeper that that we should be looking at from your perspective well Germany is going to have some issues in their banking system I think with the asset quality reviews command if they really are strict I think quite a few German banks are going to have some real problems and so that's a structural that particularly the landis box and I think that's a structural issue that they're going to have to deal with to some degree other countries have done as well but I think it in Germany it's it's going to surprise people because we think of Germany in such Atkins fiscally conservative place so I think they have that problem what Germany has done pretty well is they've gone from what had been a very tough labor regime to one where you really can work things out they they do have these high social benefits to people that temporarily laid off they've done a fairly good job of managing it and especially with immigration they permit a lot of Turkish workers in on a short-term basis and as the economy gets a little stiffer they send them back out home so the domestic Germans don't really feel the problem I think in a lot of ways while Germany is fairly socialistic I think they've had some pretty good policies that make the system a little bit more flexible that's something positive to end on what we Ross thank you very much thank you thank you you

Blue Bell Is Looking For Woman Filmed Licking Ice Cream & Putting It Back In A Store Freezer | TIME



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Blue Bell Ice Cream is looking for a woman seen in a viral video opening a container of the brand’s Tin Roof flavored ice cream, licking the top and putting it back in a store freezer.
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Blue Bell Is Looking For Woman Filmed Licking Ice Cream & Putting It Back In A Store Freezer | TIME

Gros plan sur la Toulouse School of Economics France 3 Midi Pyrénées



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la toulouse school of economics une grande école dans la fac gratuite pour ses étudiants un ovni dans le monde de la recherche car ces moyens sont bien plus grands que dans n'importe quel autre université française dans les années 2000 jean jacques lafon et le futur nobel jean tirole lorgne sur le modèle américain il crée une fondation et deviennent les rois de la levée de fonds privés au départ la tsa c'est 14 millions d'euros donnés par les fondateurs 33 millions par treize entreprises privées 33 autres millions de la part de l'état qui double la mise la bnp axa total edf le privé sponsorise la recherche la question de l'indépendance du chercheur est posée il est hors de question qu'un universitaire puisse se sentir bridé par un quelconque objectif privé et donc la gouvernance était faite de façon à garantir cette indépendance des points mais jamais aucun des donateurs au fond n'est venu donner un jour qu'elle sera un programme de recherche pour les cinq prochaines années jamais quelle est la place du privé plus qu'un simple mais senna car les entreprises sièges autant que le public au conseil d'administration dès l'école le terrain est glissant l'explicité de france bien au début des années 90 nous parler parler à jean tirole ya jean jacques lafon de leurs questions de leurs questionnements sur les pratiques de régulation du secteur de l'électricité et viennent avec des thématiques telles que jean jacques lafon et une jean tirole aurait pu laisser tomber ils se sont au contraire appropriée de ces thématiques ces thématiques de recherche dans une relation qui a été parfaitement équilibré et ils ont publié dans les meilleures revues du monde et si le prix nobel reconna reconnu la qualité de ses travaux c'est probablement qu'ils n'étaient pas biaisé en faveur de tel ou tel ans entre prime à la publication compléments de salaires les conditions de travail n'ont rien à voir avec les autres universités la ts se place au 10e rang dans le classement mondial des écoles d'économie mais à quelques mètres au sein de la même université un laboratoire 100% public récuse ce modèle et leur conception de l'économie j'ai essayé de négocier de discuter avec mes collègues de la toulouse school of economics pour essayer de trouver un terrain d'entente je considérais à l'époque il était très importante pour un doctorat en particulier de suivre des cours de théorie économique ou de l'histoire de la pensée économique ou encore de l'histoire des faits économiques et sociaux malheureusement mes collègues n'ont pas suivi ont considéré que pour un doctorant ce qui était très important c'est d'avoir un niveau très élevé en économie mathématiques en formalisation conséquence cet économiste s'est vu retirer son cours à la tpe et a dû rapprocher son laboratoire d'autres universités toulousaines pour continuer d'exister public-privé prime aujourd'hui la tsr est en train de devenir un modèle est bien plus en courant de pensée difficile à critiquer

Word Of The Day: SEDULOUS | Merriam-Webster Word Of The Day | TIME



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Sedulous (adj) : painstaking or diligent.
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Word Of The Day: SEDULOUS | Merriam-Webster Word Of The Day | TIME

A Day in the Life of a Business University Student l UHasselt Belgium



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Hello everyone!

This video is about my day as a business university student. It starts at 6 am and ends at 23 pm. I thought in this way I could show everyone how it is to be a student. I hope you guys enjoyed because the video took a lot of effort.

got a few clues that's better so right now I'm going for a run at 6:30 I like to go running so just go to change clothes I'm not going to eat because it they say is healthier if you don't eat and go run so yeah I put on my running clogs and go for a run I guess good morning everyone so I'm already right now eating breakfast so I'm feeling good right now think about half an hour to eat check my mails I read some stuff from school also I really like reading some like articles newspapers in the morning your spatula yeah that's what my morning is this stuff so I will be leaving from school in about 810 minutes I will be leaving a little bit earlier today because yeah traffic sucks man traffic's like so I'll see you guys on the road so right now I'm Oh at school I'm going to be late because as I said it's half an hour driving it's already 8:40 a.m. so I'm going to be late definitely also as you can see I'm in a traffic jam look I'm going to be late to class on the first year and I must make it to you right now so it doesn't really matter out I already had a class but I just want to rehearse it again yeah let's do the man I'll let you guys know I'll finally make it so a quick update this isn't good man look it's 9:00 a.m. already I should be in class right now and it's about still 15 minutes drive and oh no matter it's raining outside Eli the traffic is so bad because it's raining man I'm going to be so late for this class but normally I'm not late so right now it's 12 a.m. I'm going to study until 8 p.m. I think so 8 hours studying trust truck trust me I'm not going to study 8 hours in a row but I'm going to study I guess 2 hours then one hour break 2 hours and 1 hour break and then again two hours so think about 8 hours but stress me maybe I'm going to study less I don't know that's like the skies are like trying to follow the class that I showed you guys a little bit off it was about accountant I can't see like financial accounting as you guys probably know accounting as you have a company the company has costs revenues and where to spend the money on where they get their money from like everything has to keep track off and that's what Financial Accounting is about so that's this thing I'm going to tell you today hopefully I can get quite far into my books and yeah let's start studying I guess so I'm finally done with studying I studied around four to five hours I think today so it was a good City day so and right now it's time to relax watch some TV talk a little bit on my laptop so so what's up guys it's 10:30 right now I'm getting a little bit tired I'll watch them TVs some crime investigation series out my favorite I hope you guys enjoyed this video a day in my life so I'll see you soon you

International Business Management and Economics in Vilnius university



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my name is Kenda I'm from Syria and I am a head of business development at uma parks and a graduate of endless University's masters international business economics and management this is our eldest program at the Faculty of economics er we launched this program 15 years ago when we decided to internationalize our studies the keywords of our program is global focus solid research and international communication the program was very interesting because it was very broad and I really wanted something flexible and open and the program was also very international we have students from 17 nationalities and of course the experience of travelling abroad being a part of new community and experiencing life in Europe is something that I always wanted to do our students have at least two possibilities to go abroad different possibilities to go as exchange student and another possibility is to go for double degree program it's an opportunity to study in an international environment with international professors and it's also a great student life which I think you can find only particularly in this city and it's a good opportunity to find yourself in professional culture in Europe my Vilnius University experience was the beginning of a very interesting and exciting chapter of both my professional and personal life

12 People Killed In Virginia Beach Mass Shooting, Police Say | TIME



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Police say 12 people have been killed and four others injured in a mass shooting at a municipal building in Virginia Beach.
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12 People Killed In Virginia Beach Mass Shooting, Police Say | TIME

we heard we were watching the news in there and they said for fatality oh I heard shooting we heard shooting but we didn't think it was that close that close like in proximity of the building so I just thank God that they were able to alert us in time because if it had been 10 minutes more we all would have been outside so that's what I'm grateful for today

Elon Musk's Stoic Mindset: Top 5 Rules For Success (@elonmusk)



Views:3526|Rating:4.80|View Time:3:36Minutes|Likes:73|Dislikes:3
Elon Musk’s Stoic Mindset: Top 5 Rules For Success: In this video we break down how Elon’s Stoic Mindset has led to his massive success.

He’s the man behind companies SpaceX and Tesla Motors. He has an estimated net worth of US $20.5 billion!

ELON’S STOIC RULES
1. Be Fearless
2. Narrow Your Focus
3. Raise Your Standards
4. Pick The Right People
5. Focus On Giving Value

Leave a comment on this video and it’ll get a response.

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Thank you for watching – I really appreciate it 🙂

With Love & Gratitude,
The Stoic Bros

do everything you can to to gather great people if you're creating a company he's a South African entrepreneur investor and space explorer he's best known for founding Tesla Motors and SpaceX his estimated net worth is twenty point five billion dollars he's Elon Musk and this is a stoic mindset did you figure you were gonna start a car company and be successful at it well I didn't really think Tesla would be successful I thought we would most likely fail but I thought that we at least could address the false perception that people had that an electric car had to be ugly and slow and and boring like a golf cart but you say you didn't expect the company to be successful then why try if something is important enough you should try even if you probable outcome is failure focus on on signal over noise a lot of companies get confused that they spend money on things that don't actually make the product better for example at Tesla we've we've never spent any money on advertising we put all the money into R&D and manufacturing and design to try to make the car as good as possible and I think that's that's the way to go anyone help well you want to do in particularly if you're starting a company you need to work super hard so what is super hard mean well when my brother and I were starting out for his company instead of getting an apartment we just rented us a small office and we slept on the couch and we showered at the YMCA and we're so hot up we had one computer so the the website was up during the day and I was coding at night seven days a week all the time and I sort of briefly had a gofer in that period and in order to deal with me she had to sleep in the office so I work hard like and it mean every waking hour that's that's the the thing I would I would say if you particularly if you're starting a company and I mean if you do simple math to say like okay if somebody else is working 50 hours when you're working 100 you'll get twice as done as much done in the course of a year as there as the other company if you're creating company or if you're joining a company the most important thing is to make sure it is to attract great people so either be would join a group that's amazing that you've really respect or if you've building a company you've got to gather great people I mean all the company is is a group of people that have got together to create a product or service and so depending upon how talented and hardworking that group is and the greeter which they are focused cohesively in a good direction that will determine the success of the company so do everything you can to to gather great people if you're creating a company I think certainly being focused on something that you're confident will have high value to someone else and just being really rigorous in making that assessment because people are attend tend to natural human tendency is wishful thinking so a challenge for entrepreneurs is to say well what's the difference between really believing in new ideals and sticking sticking to them versus pursuing some unrealistic dream that doesn't actually have merit and it's it's that is it that is a really difficult thing to to tell you can you tell the difference between those two things I know so you need to be sort of very rigorous in your self self analysis

Prof. Joseph Stiglitz: Globalisation and the 21st Century Enlightenment



Views:41153|Rating:4.46|View Time:1:7:21Minutes|Likes:132|Dislikes:16
The University of Edinburgh Enlightenment Lecture Series with the support of ScottishPower presents Globalisation & the 21st Century Enlightenment by Joseph Stiglitz.

The Principal of The University of Edinburgh, Timothy OShea said: The University is delighted to welcome Joseph Stiglitz to speak as part of our Enlightenment Lecture Series. He is one of the giants of economics, his contributions across every part of the discipline are recognised the world over. He has already played a major role in shaping events in the worlds recent economic history, and now he is set to shape our future with his ground breaking theories on how globalisation needs to work for disenfranchised peoples worldwide. His lecture examining themes of global economics for the new millennium promises to be a fascinating insight into new economic theory.

University Tips – What should entrepreneurs study in university?



Views:6230|Rating:4.76|View Time:8:16Minutes|Likes:139|Dislikes:7
– SUPPORT ME 🙂

Like this video? Please give it a thumbs up below and/or leave a comment – Thank you!!!

Help me caption & translate this video!

“Hi Evan, I watch your videos on daily basis as a matter of fact I have two of your videos as my morning routine. Thanks a lot your work is life changing.
Evan I would like to ask for your help, I am applying for a college these days, but I’m really suffering to decide on what to study in college as an entrepreneur I don’t want to end up as a professional after graduation. In other words what do you think entrepreneurs ought to study in universities that would be helpful on the entrepreneurial process?
Thanks
Taasimo”

University Tips – What should entrepreneurs study in university?



Views:6230|Rating:4.76|View Time:8:16Minutes|Likes:139|Dislikes:7
– SUPPORT ME 🙂

Like this video? Please give it a thumbs up below and/or leave a comment – Thank you!!!

Help me caption & translate this video!

“Hi Evan, I watch your videos on daily basis as a matter of fact I have two of your videos as my morning routine. Thanks a lot your work is life changing.
Evan I would like to ask for your help, I am applying for a college these days, but I’m really suffering to decide on what to study in college as an entrepreneur I don’t want to end up as a professional after graduation. In other words what do you think entrepreneurs ought to study in universities that would be helpful on the entrepreneurial process?
Thanks
Taasimo”

Interview With Ren Zhengfei, Founder And CEO Of Chinese Telecom Giant Huawei | TIME



Views:666037|Rating:4.79|View Time:6:19Minutes|Likes:19691|Dislikes:869
Ren Zhengfei, founder and CEO of Chinese telecom giant Huawei, spoke to Time on U.S. actions against his company, the security of Huawei’s product, his daughter and Huawei CFO’s arrest, President Donald Trump and 5G technology.
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TIME brings unparalleled insight, access and authority to the news. A 24/7 news publication with nearly a century of experience, TIME’s coverage shapes how we understand our world. Subscribe for daily news, interviews, science, technology, politics, health, entertainment, and business updates, as well as exclusive videos from TIME’s Person of the Year, TIME 100 and more created by TIME’s acclaimed writers, producers and editors.

Interview With Ren Zhengfei, Founder And CEO Of Chinese Telecom Giant Huawei | TIME

What is a Central Bank?



Views:19704|Rating:4.74|View Time:1:42Minutes|Likes:93|Dislikes:5
Every country has a central bank, in the U.S. it is the Federal Reserve, in the UK it is the Bank of England and for Europe it is The European Central Bank. The primary function of a central bank is to manage the nation’s money supply, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.

By Barry Norman, Investors Trading Academy.

Civilization Part 6.2 – BBC Series by Niall Ferguson



Views:16966|Rating:4.64|View Time:14:23Minutes|Likes:52|Dislikes:4
Civilization Pt3 – BBC Series – Niall Ferguson

The most informative history lesson in 12 hours.

All credits to appropriate people. Only uploaded to further educate. No credit taken..

Creating Opportunity Through the Sharing Economy | Emily Castor | TEDxSacramentoSalon



Views:54765|Rating:4.63|View Time:14:59Minutes|Likes:402|Dislikes:32
Emily makes the case that ride and car sharing are not only a promising transportation alternatives–especially as the urban population continues to grow worldwide, but such examples of collaborative consumption are transformative agents for our economy and culture that increase personal freedom and move us closer toward the sharing economy.

Emily Castor believes authentic communication can build meaningful communities around transportation. Emily is an original Lyft team member who has helped develop the ride sharing service into what it is today as the Director of Community Relations. Along the way, she honed her expertise in the shared economy through work with Congress, political candidates, and Universities. She learned the importance of having a presence on social media, and has turned her social presence into grassroots mobilization and community outreach. From here, she is working to pass laws on Capitol Hill, and encourage policy makers to adopt ridesharing as an environmentally-conscious and community-based alternative form of transportation.
In her free time, Emily hosts Collaborative Chats, a monthly panel discussion for citizens, entrepreneurs, academics, and thought leaders to build community and discuss emerging issues of relevance to the sharing economy.

This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Learn more at

Bourbon for Breakfast (Chapter 22: The Economics of Here to There) by Jeffrey A. Tucker



Views:28|Rating:nan|View Time:10:21Minutes|Likes:|Dislikes:
The state makes a mess of everything it touches, argues Jeffrey A. Tucker in Bourbon for Breakfast. Perhaps the biggest mess it makes is in our minds. Its pervasive interventions in every sector affect the functioning of society in so many ways, we are likely to intellectually adapt rather than fight. Tucker proposes another path: see how the state has distorted daily life, rethink how things would work without the state, and fight against the intervention in every way that is permitted.

Read ‘Bourbon for Breakfast: Living Outside the Statist Quo’ online:

Playlist for complete audio presentation:

Links to more online writings by Jeffrey Tucker:

It’s a Jetsons World: Private Miracles and Public Crimes

Audio version:

Right-Wing Collectivism: The Other Threat to Liberty

A Beautiful Anarchy

Bit by Bit: How Peer-to-Peer Technology Is Freeing the World

Of Course the Alt-Right Is Against Capitalism

Nine Books to Understand the Collectivist Right

The Violence in Charlottesville

The West Is a Portable Idea, Not Blood and Soil

Five Forgotten Champions of Fascist Control

Fascism Is Not Just an Epithet. It Is an Ideology.

Five Differences Between the Alt-Right and Libertarianism

The Intellectual Conceit of IQ Ideology

Why the Holocaust Should Matter to You

The Orlando Bloodbath and the Illiberal Mind

The Surprising Modern Origins of Trump’s Ideology

The Link between Extreme Environmentalism and Hard-Core Racism

Class and Race Are Never an Excuse to Gloat Over State Atrocities

The Eugenics Plot of the Minimum Wage

Why Did Leon Trotsky Favor Eugenics?

Nazis on Twitter? That’s What Blocking Is For

Must a Jew Bake a Nazi Cake?

Policy Science Kills

It Shouldn’t Matter Who the President Is

Waking Up to the Reality of Fascism

Two-Faced Totalitarianism

King Canute vs. the Climate Planners

5 Essential Books for Liberty Lovers in Dark Times

Why Open Borders?

Gays Need the Freedom to Discriminate

How Policing Works in a Privatized City

In Defense of Private Property: Aristotle and Mises

Blurred Lines: When Guns Become Speech

Progress and Poverty, Then and Now

There Is No Human Right to a Big Mac

The Attack on Hobby Lobby Is Incoherent and Unjust

What Silly Putty Teaches Us about Invention and Marketing

The Palace Is in Turmoil but the Country Is Not

What Is “Neoliberalism” Anyway?

Why Do People Become Communists, and Why Do They Stick With It?

Pope Francis Has Forgotten the Church’s Own Grand Libertarian Legacy

The Power and Glory of M&Ms

Only Markets Can Win the War on Poverty

Liberty and Community Go Together

Be the Master of the Thrift Store

The Six Mysterious Elves of the Commercial Marketplace

Bureaucracies Are Authoritarian Too

Is Government Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde?

How the Market Crushed the Champagne Cartel

The Malleable Modern History of a Prohibited Product

Five Anti-Capitalist Movies that Backfired

The Drug War’s Arms Race: From Opium Dens to Flakka Freakout in 100 Years

Canadians Confused by the Correct Use of the Term Liberal

* * * *

DISCLAIMER: This media presentation is owned by the Ludwig von Mises Institute and is protected under Creative Commons license (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0).

This YouTube channel is in no way endorsed by or affiliated with the Mises Institute, any of its scholars or staff members.

How QWERTY conquered keyboards



Views:2518948|Rating:4.37|View Time:5:48Minutes|Likes:36273|Dislikes:5241
There’s a big chance your keyboard says QWERTY. In this episode of Vox’s Overrated, Phil Edwards investigates the keyboard’s history.

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If you’ve ever been curious about typewriter history, the rise of QWERTY wasn’t an accident. Typing and typewriters weren’t always around, and the inventor of the QWERTY typewriter layout didn’t know it would become the standard.

Over time, however, business reasons and typing education made QWERTY a standard across the industry and, eventually, for the vast majority of typists. Though there are exceptions to QWERTY’s domination, for the most part, this keyboard layout remains the default even today.

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Scalise: China needs US economy more than US needs China



Views:43889|Rating:4.34|View Time:9:22Minutes|Likes:965|Dislikes:147
Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La., on U.S. tensions with Iran, U.S. trade negotiations with China, USMCA and reports President Trump is urging him to run for governor of Louisiana.

FOX Business Network (FBN) is a financial news channel delivering real-time information across all platforms that impact both Main Street and Wall Street. Headquartered in New York — the business capital of the world — FBN launched in October 2007 and is the leading business network on television, topping CNBC in Business Day viewers for the second consecutive year. The network is available in more than 80 million homes in all markets across the United States. Owned by FOX, FBN has bureaus in Chicago, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C. and London.

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Understand Money to Have Money



Views:18|Rating:5.00|View Time:57:30Minutes|Likes:4|Dislikes:0
This Evergreen Philosophy show focuses on money. How do winners and losers look at it? Love, happiness and prosperity are aspects of a life worth living that includes, by necessity, a proper understanding of what money really is.

Is Money The Root Of All Evil? Mike Maloney Reads Atlas Shrugged
w/ Mike Maloney

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Money Talks: The secret behind Rwanda’s economic success



Views:63976|Rating:4.84|View Time:6:51Minutes|Likes:392|Dislikes:13
The 1994 genocide will always marr the country’s history, but Rwanda’s moved forward since those dark days both politically and economically. It’s been growing fast for well over a decade and is predicted to keep booming. Fidelis Mbah reports. Interview with François Kanimba, Minister of Trade and Industry of Rwanda.

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China-US economic war is decades-long: Rep. Perry



Views:10612|Rating:4.63|View Time:8:32Minutes|Likes:302|Dislikes:24
Rep. Scott Perry, R-Penn., and Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Texas, on U.S. trade tensions with China, USMCA, the uncertainties over an infrastructure plan and Iran.

FOX Business Network (FBN) is a financial news channel delivering real-time information across all platforms that impact both Main Street and Wall Street. Headquartered in New York — the business capital of the world — FBN launched in October 2007 and is the leading business network on television, topping CNBC in Business Day viewers for the second consecutive year. The network is available in more than 80 million homes in all markets across the United States. Owned by FOX, FBN has bureaus in Chicago, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C. and London.

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Why central banks are experimenting with blockchain



Views:6751|Rating:4.70|View Time:2:45Minutes|Likes:63|Dislikes:4
Business Insider spoke to economist Garrick Hileman, from the University of Cambridge, about central banks experimenting with blockchain technology.

Hileman said an increasing number of central banks are looking to the system due to its resilience and transparency.

He adds that although blockchain could become important as banks move away from physical currency, there are privacy issues with the technology.

Watch the video to find out more.

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Business Insider UK is the largest business news site for British readers and viewers in the UK. Our mission: to tell you all you need to know about the big world around you. The BI UK Video team focuses on business, technology, strategy, and culture with an emphasis on unique storytelling and data that appeals to the next generation of leaders.